BENGALURU, India: India's US$283 billion information technology industry faces a dramatic reset after U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to impose a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas starting September 21, a move that threatens to unravel the decades-old model of rotating skilled engineers into American client projects.

The Indian IT sector earns roughly 57 percent of its revenue from the U.S. market and has long relied on H-1B visas to deliver outsourced software and business services. Last year, India accounted for 71 percent of approved H-1B beneficiaries, far ahead of China at 11.7 percent, according to U.S. government data.

Now, companies serving clients such as Apple, JPMorgan Chase, Walmart, Microsoft, Meta and Google are being forced to pause onshore rotations, accelerate offshore delivery and hire more U.S. citizens and green card holders, according to analysts, lawyers and economists.

 "The ‘American Dream' for aspiring workers will be tough," said Ganesh Natarajan, former CEO of Zensar Technologies, predicting firms would restrict cross-border travel and push more work to India, Mexico, and the Philippines.

Major outsourcers Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra did not respond to requests for comment. Industry body Nasscom warned the move would ripple through America's innovation ecosystem and disrupt onshore projects.

"Services exports have finally been dragged into the ongoing global trade and tech war," said Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global, noting that the on-site/offshore delivery model could be disrupted, pressuring margins and supply chains.

Experts say client-facing roles will be squeezed, slowing deal conversion and extending project ramp-ups. "Clients will demand repricing or delay start dates until there is clarity on legal challenges," said Phil Fersht, CEO of HFS Research. "Some projects will be re-scoped to reduce onshore staffing. Others will shift delivery offshore or near-shore from day one."

Immigration lawyers said the sudden fee spike has already caused turmoil. "We expect that companies will become far more selective in deciding which candidates to sponsor, reserving H-1B filings for only the most business-critical roles," said Vic Goel, managing partner at U.S. firm Goel & Anderson.

Confusion deepened before the White House clarified that the fee applied only to new applications, not renewals. Internal messages showed firms including Tata Consultancy Services, Eli Lilly, Microsoft, JPMorgan, and Amazon had advised employees to return to the U.S. or stay put before September 21, forcing many to cancel trips at the last minute.

Sophie Alcorn of Alcorn Immigration Law said lawsuits are expected soon. "We are anticipating that several lawsuits will be immediately forthcoming this week," she said.

The timing adds to existing headwinds: a potential 25 percent U.S. tax on outsourcing payments and weaker tech spending amid tariffs and inflation pressures. Analysts say the latest visa restrictions could accelerate the growth of global capability centres (GCCs) that U.S. firms set up in India and other countries.

"Time zone proximity will accelerate GCCs and resourcing in Canada, Mexico, and Latin America," said Steven Hall, ISG president and chief AI officer. "GCCs in India will also continue to rise with broader capabilities and skills as enterprises shift strategic roles to India."

India already hosts more than half the world's GCCs. According to a Nasscom-Zinnov report, it is projected to grow to 2,200 companies by 2030, with a market size nearing $100 billion and up to 2.8 million jobs.

Ray Wang, founder of Constellation Research, said Trump's move would mean "more GCCs in India, more local hiring in the U.S., more pressure to deliver automation and AI at the same time, less outsourcing, fewer H-1B visas, and less job mobility. We are seeing a new world order in services economics."